Well, my regression model correctly predicted Kentucky winning it all. So what? Sometimes the data just confirms what we already believe. While not as exciting as correctly predicting a 4 seed to win it all, the results nonetheless speak for themselves. Overall, my model-based bracket placed 6th out of 27 in the first annual Tepper Sports Fanalytics Club Tourney Pick Em. This equated to the 83rd percentile among Yahoo! brackets. While not perfect, it beats the heck out of my usual bottom-feeder brackets.
But how should we really define “success” with an analytical-based bracket? Picking the winner is nice, but I’m going to hold out and say success should be finishing “in the money”, which typically means 3rd place and higher in your pool. That being said, you usually have to pick the winner to cash out, so we’re on the right track.
So it’s time to put a bow on the 2011-12 college basketball season. Now we have baseball and the NBA playoffs to look forward to. Stay tuned for more blogs along those lines in the near future!
-DaveCaughman
The Fanalytics Blog 
Leave a comment